tourstrokesdatagolf-driven golf ev analysis
Masters 2026 Odds — Full Field EV Board
Below is the full Masters 2026 field with each player's best available Betfair exchange back price, the implied probability of that price, our model's true probability, and the expected-value gap between them. Green rows are +EV (the market underrates them), red rows are the fades.
full field
| player | odds | implied | model | ev | note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scottie Scheffler | 7 | 12.5% | 16.5% | +4.0% | 2x champ. 4 straight Augusta T10s. |
| Jon Rahm | 12.5 | 7.4% | 9.0% | +1.6% | 2023 champ. Best DG SG 2026 (+2.69). |
| Rory McIlroy | 14 | 6.7% | 8.0% | +1.3% | Defending champ. Back question marks. |
| Bryson DeChambeau | 13.5 | 6.9% | 7.0% | +0.1% | Strong LIV form, bomber penalty risk. |
| Ludvig Aberg | 17.5 | 5.4% | 5.5% | +0.1% | 2nd on debut '24, T7 '25. |
| Matt Fitzpatrick | 22 | 4.3% | 5.8% | +1.5% | PRIMARY PICK. Won Valspar, 2nd Players. |
| Xander Schauffele | 17.5 | 5.4% | 4.5% | -0.9% | Putting rank 76th. Too short. |
| Cameron Young | 22 | 4.3% | 4.0% | -0.3% | Good form, bomber penalty. |
| Tommy Fleetwood | 25 | 3.8% | 3.5% | -0.3% | Accuracy suits post-2021 Augusta. |
| Justin Rose | 32 | 3.0% | 2.5% | -0.5% | 2025 runner-up. Elite course IQ. |
| Robert MacIntyre | 38 | 2.6% | 2.5% | -0.1% | T2 Texas Open. Lefty. |
| Patrick Reed | 42 | 2.3% | 2.8% | +0.5% | STRONG. 5 T12s in 7 Masters. |
| Hideki Matsuyama | 44 | 2.2% | 2.0% | -0.2% | 2021 champ. Elite irons. |
| Brooks Koepka | 46 | 2.1% | 1.5% | -0.6% | Career GS bid, patchy LIV form. |
| Jordan Spieth | 60 | 1.6% | 1.5% | -0.1% | Best Augusta IQ alive. |
| Patrick Cantlay | 80 | 1.2% | 1.0% | -0.2% | Good history, poor 2026. |
| Akshay Bhatia | 70 | 1.4% | 1.5% | +0.1% | Elite approach, Augusta unknown. |
| Corey Conners | 100 | 1.0% | 1.4% | +0.4% | EW PICK. 4 T10s in 6 Masters. |
| Si Woo Kim | 60 | 1.6% | 1.2% | -0.4% | Shot 64 at Augusta R3 '24. |
| Russell Henley | 60 | 1.6% | 1.2% | -0.4% | Under-radar ball-striker. |
| Sepp Straka | 95 | 1.0% | 1.0% | +0.0% | T2 Pebble, T8 Players. |
| Adam Scott | 90 | 1.1% | 1.0% | -0.1% | 2nd SG:APP 2026. |
| J.J. Spaun | 90 | 1.1% | 1.2% | +0.1% | Won Texas Open. Debut. |
| Chris Gotterup | 60 | 1.6% | 1.8% | +0.2% | 2 wins 2026. Debut. |
| Jacob Bridgeman | 85 | 1.2% | 0.9% | -0.3% | Putting-dependent profile. |
The board's headline: the market still prices reputation at Augusta — big names with poor current data (Schauffele, Morikawa) are too short, while elite-current-form players the public doesn't associate with the Masters (Fitzpatrick, Reed, Conners) are too long. That gap is where the +EV lives. Open the interactive version to sort the field yourself.
Data: DataGolf · Betfair Exchange. Not financial advice. 18+. BeGambleAware.org