The TourStrokes Golf Betting Model

TourStrokes isn't a tipping service — it's a probability model pointed at betting markets. This page explains exactly how the numbers on the Masters 2026 betting guide are produced.

step 1 — true probability

Each player's win probability is built from DataGolf inputs: DG rank and DG points for baseline skill, full strokes-gained category breakdowns (off-the-tee, approach, around-the-green, putting) from recent rolling form, and Augusta-specific course history weighted toward recent years. Course-fit adjustments apply three Augusta findings: an accuracy-over-distance shift since 2021, elevated importance of around-the-green play, and reduced weight on putting.

step 2 — implied probability

For every player we take the best available Betfair exchange back price and convert it to an implied probability (1 ÷ (odds + 1)). Exchange prices are used rather than bookmaker prices because they carry no margin — the total book overround at Masters prices typically runs near 107%, and every basis point of overround is edge the bookmaker takes from you.

step 3 — expected value

EV = true probability − implied probability. A player we make 5.8% to win, priced at 22/1 (4.55% implied), carries +1.25% expected value: for every unit staked, the model expects a 1.25% long-run return. That's the single number every pick on this site is judged by — see the value picks and fades.

step 4 — staking

Fractional Kelly criterion: stake = edge ÷ (odds − 1), taken at a fraction of full Kelly to control variance. Full Kelly assumes your probability estimates are perfect; they are not, so we run fractional to survive the estimation error.

step 5 — review

Every tournament is graded after the close: what the model said, what the market said, what happened. Methodology details live on the methodology page inside the app.

Data: DataGolf · Betfair Exchange. Not financial advice. 18+. BeGambleAware.org